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Bear Market
A sustained downtrend of 20%+ from recent highs, characterized by widespread pessimism.
What it is
A bear market is the opposite of a bull: 20%+ drawdown sustained over months. In crypto, bears typically run 12-24 months with multiple sucker rallies (sharp +30% bounces that fail). Indicators: BTC below 200-day EMA, alts crashing harder than BTC, project bankruptcies, exchange failures, narrative collapse. The bear-market rule: cash is a position. Sitting in stablecoins through the bottom phase preserves capital for the next cycle. Most retail traders try to 'catch the bottom' too early and lose another 50% before the real bottom prints with capitulation.
Example
Crypto winter 2022: BTC dropped from $69K (Nov 2021) to $15.5K (Nov 2022). 12 months, -78%. The bounce attempts at $42K, $32K, $25K all failed. The actual bottom was marked by FTX collapse — peak fear, peak liquidations.
How Indikora uses Bear Market
Indikora's Regime engine downweights long-only strategies and tightens stops when bear-market conditions persist on the higher timeframes.
Related terms
- Bull Market — A sustained period of rising prices, broad optimism, and increasing investor participation.
Strategy guides that cover this
- Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) in Crypto — Strategy Guide
When DCA beats lump-sum, when it doesn't, and the math behind the most overlooked retail strategy